Forgive Me Albo, I'm Sorry I Doubted You...
Before the AUKUS announcement, PM Albo visited QUAD partners and flew across the South China Sea without Chinese permission, all while the National Peoples Congress was in Session.
Dear Albo,
It seems an apology is due, from me, to you.
Reasons to be Happy 🥳
You (Albo) hopped across the QUAD to announce the details of AUKUS and the nuclear Subs. You even symbolically crossed China’s nine dash line, right at the time Xi Jin Ping was crowning himself king again and announcing another new world order.
China was suitably outraged, but directed its ire specifically at AUKUS:
This nuclear submarine plan against China is big trouble.
Other commentary was more bland:
The United States, Britain and Australia announce a nuclear submarine cooperation plan
More aggressive headlines emerged over the next few days. But the initial reaction set the tone, Chinese media argues:
Nuclear subs for Australia is a breach of Anti Nuclear Proliferation Treaties.
Australia and the US have tried to change the terms and interpretation of the treaty.
It’s a double standard compared to the unfair treatment of lovely Iran and their “peaceful” development of enriched uranium
It is a threat to peace in the region
South East Asian nations are against it
Similar points and messages were repeated in multiple articles across state media.
Perhaps being in government means being mugged by reality. Reality being the need for AUKUS.
I really didn’t think you’d go this far, if you lasted this long.
How Did I Wrong You ?
I wrote:
and took a swipe at your Foreign Minister, with the cynically titled;
My recurring theme being that you were slyly easing in acceptance of the 14 demands and paving the way to make Australia a Chinese vassal state.
Clearly this cannot be the case:
Flying across the QUAD
Via the centre of the South China Sea to demonstrate we don’t recognise Chinese ownership and control within the nine dash line and
Then announcing AUKUS Nuclear sub details in San Diego
will successfully get up Xi Jin Ping’s nose more than any “chest thumping” statement or action that you accused Peter Dutton or Scott Morrison of in the past.
Well done.
If they do invite you to Beijing after this, we will really need to fine tune our “bug on the wall technology” and listen to that “conversation1”.
Why did I doubt you?
At Woolford you lied about the previous government not attempting to talk to China, as if it wasn’t China’s fault, and Chinas refusal to communicate.
You ignored that this was a strategy for China publicly suggested by Bob Carr to enable the CCP to help the ALP win power and then help the CCP2.
This is similar to lies being spread in CCP controlled social media and by other politicians including various Teals (Tink, Boele).
It demonstrated a willingness to side with a foreign dictatorship to defeat your fellow Australians rather than build a united front of Australians against the CCP bully. It didn’t end even after winning government.
You spoke at the dedication of the new CC3 Museum at Sydney University, when most wise politicians would have been nowhere to be seen.
You tolerated the bullying of Kimberley Kitching who was on the ball about this individual and the damage he can do. Her participation in IPAC3 seems to be what led to her ostracisation in the nominally “Democratic Socialist” ALP.
In the UN vote on the Treaty on the Prohibition on Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) Australia shifted to abstain, instead of oppose. This does not fit with the AUKUS strategy, even though we don’t plan to have nuclear weapons. Chinese media reacted with glee. US authorities grumbled under their breath.
You were tolerant with Labor State premiers (WA and Vic) who worked to undercut Australia’s diplomatic negotiating position when the coalition were in charge.
They would fire off incessant undermining statements, use CCP dog whistle language that translates the way the Chinese media require, give consular officials a voice in Australia that we can’t have in China, and even signed up to the BRI, - as a State.
They worked to undermine Australia in the hope that the Morrison government would also be collateral damage to their partisan advantage.
The big loser was Australia.
And you did and said nothing. But it all worked out and you got to be PM for a while.
In NSW we now have a State Labor MP who explicitly gave a platform to a CCP propagandist, arguing Australia should switch support from US to China.
You were cool with this. Note the language “China’s rise / US retreats” is a paraphrase of standard propaganda tropes.
But now you have changed.
Good Luck
So now that you’ve come down on the side of team Australia, even giving Scott Morrison a sliver of credit, what happens next ? You have now made significant enemies not only in China but in Australia.
Labor branches in your own electorate moved motions opposing AUKUS.
Too bad that fence mending photo op with Xi is looking unlikely now. If you go to China he might have one of those bloody steel walls he talks about when he is busy stoking paranoia.
WeChat will now no longer push Chinese voters towards the ALP. Expect support for the Greens and the CCP proxy, The Australian Citizens Party.
Being anti - AUKUS is now the new badge of honour for differentiating from the establishment. Expect more attention seekers to use this to their advantage. Cue Paul Keating.
And crowds of former Labor voters
Plibersek seems to be popping up in the news a lot now. She will need a cause to unseat you. This could be it. Give it time, I give it six months.
The Constitution says foreign affairs is a Federal responsibility. Mark McGowan is gazumping you on a trip to China before you.
Maybe they will help him set up a one party vassal state and secede ?
Andrew Forrest will be kumbaya-ing in BoAo shortly. He will be seen as speaking for Australia, and there is nothing you can do to stop him undermining you.
If you do go to China, McGowan and Forrest will have already set the scene for you, …….or set you up.
Future US Ambassador Rudd is a public opponent of AUKUS. Up until a few months of being appointed US Ambassador, he seemed to be an advocate for China against Australia, at least while Australia was governed by the Coalition.
He may yet become a team player4. Ask Julia.
A million viewers get their views from material like this:
Clue: It doesn’t help you.
$368 Billion:
Australia will need more money to pay for this, and our biggest export partner will need to work through their quandary:
Australia sells iron ore to China, China turns it into steel for weapons (amongst other things)
China pays for iron ore from Australia, we use it to buy weapons (amongst other things).
So strategic logic dictates China will need to redouble efforts to buy less, cheaper, from Australia, and we will need to defend pricing and diversify trade. The past trade sanctions that have only partially been unwound will be viewed as a practice run.
Abbott and Hockey baulked at Obama’s suggestion of restricting iron ore sales to China as a strategic lever, but now it is clear all strategic levers are costly. You will need a plan to protect pricing and a plan to limit or shut supply down in event of deteriorating geostrategic circumstances.
Andrew Forrest will have thought of all of this, and he won’t help you.
Please Accept My Apologies For Doubting You.
Please understand I wasn’t just doubting you, but I thought that there were forces beyond your control that would make it impossible for you to effectively push back on China.
As Scott Morrison would say, I believe in miracles.
Here’s hoping you get an endless string of miracles, because with the forces of the pro-authoritarian left ranged against you, backed by China’s media, United Front, commercial, and diplomatic support, you’ll need miracles.
Xi will get others to shout at Albo then he will talk down to what’s left of him. Bad cop / less bad cop routine. Then they will smile for the cameras and the People’s Daily will report on how Albo will mend his ways.
Inter Parliamentary Alliance on China - IPAC
No HR department in the world would be confident of a 65 year old suddenly changing personality to fit the requirements of a new job.