Rancid Juice - Funny Misinformation Peddlers
We’ve had an awkward laugh at the snarky output of “the Juice” Honest Government Ads. But if a big chunk of the population get their opinions from three minute YouTube videos, maybe the laughs on us.
The following video was produced a year ago when AUKUS was new. It criticises AUKUS and nuclear subs. The pact generates issues that are complex and worthy of concern, discussion and research.
The Juice work to turn the public against AUKUS, and in light of China’s public opinion management (新闻舆论管理）efforts in Australia, it’s worth analysing point by point.
We’ve covered shills and evaluated “borrowed mouths”, but the Juice leaves a bad taste.
It’s been watched by more than a million people.
This may make it the most influential source of information on AUKUS in Australia.
It’s about government, but it’s not honest.
More than a million views. 😵💫
Diss the Diggers
In the Afghanistan campaign, Australia lost 41 soldiers and 250 were injured, many severely. They joined an international mission to break up Al Qaeda operating in Afghanistan. Their service and sacrifice should be treated with respect.
Did “The Juice” propose a better alternative to defeating Al Qaeda ? Sometimes there are no good options.
The reference to American Empire (美帝）works well in translation, despite the US not actually having an empire.
This phrase is a CCP fave.
Who’s Bad ? We’re Bad - China / Australia False Equivalence
The next 12 to 42 seconds summarises some Chinese strategic behaviour of concern, including menacing Taiwan and tightening control over the South China Sea.
This quickly segues into classic CCP style false equivalence and red herrings, starting with the somewhat equivalent Chagos island example and then “joking” that Guam bases, Hawaii bases, and Australian existence are the same thing as militarising the South China Sea.
The implication of China’s control of the South China Sea, means we will eventually need their permission to transport purchases of Thai refined petrol to Australia, or any other import or export needing to transit the sealanes that facilitate 22% of global trade by value1 or 50 % of global shipping tonnage. Australia's major trading partners other than China are South East and North East Asian nations.
Funny joke. 🤬
A Dig at Adani
Seconds 50 - 1:07 include more false equivalence, comparing the exasperation with French contractors, the opportunity to get better subs and the overall improved strategic cooperation, with …..
ta da !
….Adani’s coal permits, which are legally granted and they have fully performed their contractual requirements, thus an unrelated topic.
Morrison Acted Improperly
Seconds 1:23 to 1:29 allege the Morrison government acted improperly and should have consulted parliament before negotiating AUKUS. Which is not how these things have ever worked, under any government, ever.
Bad old fashioned misinformation. Kind of like pumpkin pulp in orange juice.2 A con.
Reliant On The US
Seconds 1:24 to 1:36 makes the only real or important point with validity, that for this element of our national defence we will be highly reliant on the US.
Even more so than with every other item we buy from the US or other suppliers.
Whether in practice this makes any substantive difference given our need for spares and supplies and ammunition for anything else we buy from outside our borders, is hard to say.
I’ll leave those debates to experts, and focus on the 新闻舆论管理 public opinion management elements of this video production.
US Is About To Collapse
1:36 to 1:44 goes on to attack the US as a bad and unstable country. If anything, the USA’s problems should remind us of what a great country we have and need to protect.
Nuclear Engines In Subs Make Australian Cities Nuclear Targets
1:46 to 1:55 makes the tired NDP3 style argument that if we have nuclear powered submarines then Australian cities will be targets for a nuclear strike.
By implication this presupposes that we would not otherwise have been a target, if our subs had been powered by diesel (but carrying the same weaponry).
AUKUS Causes Poverty
From 1:57 to 2:18 we get the fave strategy of false equivalence again, the cost of AUKUS (really the subs part) is likely to be high and hard to predict.
Apparently this comes at the cost of poverty alleviation and other welfare spending.
Ignoring of course that in a situation where our trade lanes are threatened, our GDP and tax base decline and our ability to extend help to the vulnerable is weakened.
We Don’t Need The USA Because We Could Ally With Burma and Cambodia
from 2:18 to 2:34 : “some say” (Some is Allan Behm) that we can do without the US as an anchor to the strategy and somehow lead the various dictatorships and politically unstable nations to our north to cooperate to deal collectively with China.
This 1980’s hippie concept died a long time ago, but in modified (minilateral) form we are trying something more realistic.
It’s called the Quad:
Japan 🇯🇵
China says Okinawa and the islands in that chain in the East China Sea should be independent from Japan. It periodically fires up social media to promote this view. Japan is interested in “forming stronger relationships with its close (and not so close) neighbours, and together applying firm, consistent and united diplomacy” (ie Quad sounds good).
India 🇮🇳
China wants a California sized piece of India, while starting fist fights over bits further to the west. India is also interested in “forming stronger relationships with its close (and not so close) neighbours, and together applying firm, consistent and united diplomacy” (ie Quad sounds good).
Taiwan🇹🇼
Taiwan has obvious interests in pushing back on China, (not being part of China) but if we bring them into a formal alliance we may as well recognise them as a nation, which might muddy the waters somewhat….(so park that idea).
South Korea 🇰🇷
South Korea has its hands full with their nuke waving cousins to the North, and are about as tightly bound with the US as a country could be. They probably can’t help others in a biffo with China, as North Korea might use a major war with Taiwan as an opportunity to “reunite” Korea.
New Zealand 🇳🇿
NZ thinks that if it hides behind Australia no one will know it is there.
What about ASEAN ?
Thailand 🇹🇭
Buys weapons from China and the CCP is nice to this military dictatorship. If they did support pushback on China, China can cut off their access to the South China Sea.
This would stop them selling refined petroleum to Australia, for example.
Burma 🇲🇲
This military junta is fully dependent on the CCP. Without Chinese support, it’s possible they could not have taken power in the first place. They are not known as team players in international affairs.
Laos 🇱🇦
Aid, trade, investment, electricity, water4, all can be shut down by China. As a land-locked country fully dependent on China’s good-will, it’s hard to imagine The Lao Peoples Revolutionary Party supporting resistance to China’s behaviour in the South China Sea or Taiwan.
Cambodia 🇰🇭
Pol Pot’s Khmer Rouge were armed, trained (politically and militarily) and funded by China. The local despot Hun Sen (ex Khmer Rouge) is still in charge after all these decades, and Cambodia is dependent on China for water flows5. China’s investment and trade with Cambodia, as well as aid, makes it hard, and Hun Sen has no incentive, to do anything but support China wherever possible.
If he did stand up to China he may have to face down a horde of thirsty ex-fishermen.
Vietnam 🇻🇳
Vietnam has 1000 years of history of avoiding being a province or vassal of China. They also have island and territory claims in the South China Sea. As a Communist dictatorship they have some affinity with the PRC, but shrewd negotiators might be able to enlist their help. Proximity and trade with China means they could be punished effectively by China too, so it’s a big ask.
The Philippines 🇵🇭
In 2016 the Phillipines got the UNCLOS big tick of approval for their claims in the South China Sea. Unfortunately ASEAN failed to stick together and back each other up and it amounted to nothing. This could be because “China is a big country and other countries are small countries”, and that's just a fact. 6
A fact that makes including other big countries 🇺🇸 in alliances important.
Indonesia 🇮🇩
Indonesia seems to be able to protect its own maritime borders and benefit while others conflict with China. An extra problem with the nine dashed line is the gaps in the dashes - how close do the un-dashed bits of China’s claimed maritime border get to Indonesian territory ?
In the still ongoing trade war against Australia by China, Indonesia was able to square away sales of coal that in the past would have been supplied from Australia.
Working together with Australia wasn’t a priority when trade coercion and money was involved. It probably won’t be a priority when military conflict is involved.
Singapore 🇸🇬
Singapore doesn’t have a direct claim in the SCS. Due to its longstanding “Chinese Singapore” immigration policy,7 over time it may actually want to be an overseas territory of China. In the meantime it will continue to play the game of balancing off other powers, not picking a side against China. It will hope trade continues to flow, whether freely or controlled by China may not matter.
Malaysia 🇲🇾
Malaysia is a battleground for pro-China United Front interests and domestic interests. It’s hard to imagine them stepping up as a solid ally with a consistent stand against Chinese aggression.
To their credit they did edit the South China Sea nine dash line map scene out of the Dora the Explorer movie. Not sure what China stopped buying after that.
Excluded From Juice’s Strategic Analysis
Papua New Guinea 🇵🇬, Solomon Islands 🇸🇧, Fiji 🇫🇯, East Timor 🇹🇱, Vanuatu 🇻🇺, lots of places where a small amount of Yuan buys a lot of influence, fast.
Given their proximity to Australia, these and other pacific nations are important, but that is because putting Chinese bases there is a way of blocking the US access to Australia.
Juice’s Strategic Advisers ?
Juice seem to rely on Penny Wong’s former adviser, Allan Behm.
A relic of failed 1980’s strategic thinking, he has no particular experience or knowledge of China and must get his ideas through conversations in English with Chinese officials, which is demonstrated in his writings.
He is firmly in the “Surrender to China” camp, and is looking forward to joining the Chinese led 人类命运共同体 , community of shared destiny. He has advocated rewriting the global rules to favour China, which is cover for Chinese might makes right.
Juice did a 43 minute YouTube discussion with him.
If you want to understand those who seek to undermine Australian domestic solidarity, have a listen. You can put it on double speed as it’s a bit boring. Those who would have us unprepared and alone, have a script that should be understood, if only for the purposes of rebutting.
Note the title, in the same vein as a book title by Kevin Rudd, the surrenderist camp imply that keeping the peace is up to us, not China, the clear aggressor.
So are Juice a Chinese information op ?
The frightening truth is that the enemy within, is home grown stupidity.
UNCTAD estimate
This used to happen in Australia. Juice marketed as fresh orange juice with pulp was bulked up with pumpkin and the like. Add enough sugar and no one can tell. An apt analogy for this “Juice.”
NDP Nuclear Disarmament Party - 1980’s one issue party that advocated anything against nuclear, essentially pushing soviet interests of getting Australia to kneecap the ANZUS relationship. It imploded when the small group of well meaning hippies that started it realised they were grossly outnumbered by wacko communists and members of the eccentric “Socialist Workers Party”, the campus organisation that seems to never die.
China has dammed the upstream rivers at the source in China as well as building dams in Laos.
Cambodia is downstream from Laos. This banal geographic fact has important strategic ramifications.
Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jie Chi at an ASEAN conference, Hanoi 2010.
The Singapore government doesn’t call it that. For that matter, back in your great-grandparents day, Australian race based immigration policies were not officially called a White Australia policy.