China's Ukraine Peace Ploy: Cunning Disinformation Warfare.
The Twelve Points are good politics in China and the developing world. The peace ploy is a propaganda weapon, and a good one. And they leveraged western media to spread it.
Of course China doesn’t expect anyone serious to take the Twelve Point Plan seriously, in terms of actually bringing peace.
It is excellent information (disinformation) warfare from China’s point of view.
The twelve points play well to the Chinese audience, around the world, and they vote in your country’s elections too. People in the west tired of war may be fooled, but it’s people in the developing world most likely to be taken in by it, especially if China has a leading role in their media and they have an existing antipathy to the west.
So what does widespread media exposure of each of these points set out to achieve for China?
1 Respect Sovereignty
The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld. ….Equal and uniform application of international law should be promoted, while double standards must be rejected
Ambiguous, At first glance with western eyes it can be interpreted as supporting Ukraine.
Thinking deeper, it might be supporting the territorial integrity of greater Russia with Ukraine as an essential element of it.
The main point would be promoting the idea of accepting Taiwan as an essential part of Chinese sovereignty.
2 Abandoning The Cold War Mentality.
The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs.
This reinforces Russia’s gaslighting of NATO. Instead of countries wanting to join NATO out of fear of Russia, pretend Russia is a victim. Most Chinese agree with this, since it’s the only opinion CCP controlled media permit on the issue.
This idea is currently only embraced by the looney left in the west, but could spread if the war drags on. Likely to gain currency in Asia, Africa and Latin America, where people simply want to oppose the west or the US and logic isn’t really that important.
Some folks have suggested NATO should think beyond Europe, making it a potential opponent of China.
Repetition of blame NATO message could eventually shift the dial on UN votes related to the Ukraine / Russia war.
3 Ceasing Hostilities
avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions,…
Ceasing hostilities is primarily for Russia’s strategic benefit.
Mao wrote about using peace talks as a deception, while advancing and reorganizing troops like they did in the Korean War (when they had committed to a standstill).
After all, you don’t read far in Sun Tzu’s “Art of War” before you get to the bit about: the Art of War is the art of deception…..
4 Resuming Peace Talks
create conditions and platforms for the resumption of negotiation
Conditions for peace talks are designed to lead to pressure on the west to cease arming Ukraine, giving space to Russia to re-arm, likely with direct or indirect help from China.
5 Resolving The Humanitarian Crisis
The UN should be supported in playing a coordinating role in channeling humanitarian aid to conflict zones.
China is currently the biggest contributor to UN peacekeeping efforts.
Getting Chinese peacekeepers and NGOs on the ground would be a good way to gather intelligence and facilitate work behind enemy lines for the benefit of Russia.
6 Protecting Civilians And Prisoners Of War (POWs).
China supports the exchange of POWs between Russia and Ukraine, and calls on all parties to create more favorable conditions for this purpose.
Sounds like a neutral no brainer, unless Ukraine has more prisoners than Russia.
What are more favourable conditions for POW exchange ? China hasn’t stated it, but we’d guess they are moves that weaken Ukraines position.
7 Keeping Nuclear Power Plants Safe.
China opposes armed attacks against nuclear power plants or other peaceful nuclear facilities
Neutral no-brainer, unless “safe” means taking electricity production out of Ukraine government control.
After all, the only thing making them dangerous is Russian bombs.
8 Reducing Strategic Risks. (Nuclear / Chemical / Biological)
China opposes the research, development and use of chemical and biological weapons by any country under any circumstances.
Opposing nuclear war might seem in the west to be directed at Russia, but the statement references Russia and China’s lies about US chemical and biological testing in the Ukraine.
It is a propaganda attack on the US, and repetition creates the illusion of truth.
It won’t help bring peace to the Ukraine…..
9 Facilitate Grain Exports
The cooperation initiative on global food security proposed by China provides a feasible solution to the global food crisis.
Russia is selling stolen Ukrainian grain, China would like to buy it. So would much of Africa and the rest of the world.
This is about making NATO look, in the eyes of people in the developing world, to be to blame for the shortage of wheat in Ethiopia and beyond.
We are short of Ukraine grain because
Of Russia’s invasion, and
Russia is selling stolen wheat, which complicates the implementation of existing agreements.
But expect Kenyan and Colombian taxi drivers to blame NATO or the US, for the high price of bread, as time goes by. Even if wheat prices fall.
10 Stop Unilateral Sanctions
Relevant countries should stop abusing unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction” against other countries, so as to do their share in deescalating the Ukraine crisis and create conditions for developing countries to grow their economies and better the lives of their people.
Sanctions inhibit Russias war fighting effort, stopping sanctions helps Russia win.
Here China is trying to spin sanctions to make the west look bad, especially in countries that want to trade with Russia.
This propaganda makes the link between US sanctions (on Russia, and China and other allies like Iran) as a cause of third world poverty.
Another reason for Kenyan taxi drivers to hate the US.
11 Keeping Industrial And Supply Chains Stable
oppose using the world economy as a tool or weapon for political purposes.
Economic war against Russia is hurting China, as is economic war against China. This one plays well to the Chinese domestic audience. Decoupling to some extent is happening and momentum is likely to build, hurting China more.
Trying to make US / NATO look like the baddy here is galling:
Nord Stream 1 commenced in 2011 to reduce Russia’s dependence on the Ukraine, cutting the cost of Russia acting against Ukraine, politically or militarily, which they did once Nord Stream 1 was operational.
China cut rare earths supply to Japan as a coercive tool.
China not only ceased imports from Australia as a political attack but did so without a process to cope with cargoes in transit, making it all the more malicious. Coal vessels could not unload, Live lobsters died and rotted in quarantine.
China and Russia’s weaponisation of supply chains is what started the whole process of decoupling and friend-shoring.
But try telling that to the taxi driver on the way to Nairobi airport.
12 Promoting Post-Conflict Reconstruction
The international community needs to take measures to support post-conflict reconstruction in conflict zones. China stands ready to provide assistance and play a constructive role in this endeavour.
Not sure why anyone would be reconstructing in conflict zones. Hopefully they mean former conflict zones.
Reconstruction ignores the priority of first defeating Russia in order to have a lasting peace.
But whatever the outcome of the current conflict, China would love to boost the flagging Belt and Road Initiative on the ruins of whatever remains. Especially if the west via the UN or other agencies foot the bill.
There’s a lot in the Twelve Points for Russia and China, but you already knew there was nothing in it for Ukraine.
In the information war, we do need to identify China’s propaganda lies, rebut them and promote the truth.